Mgt613 GDB No. 1 Solution-2

Question: Given the weekly demand data, what are the exponential smoothing forecasts for periods 2-05 using a=0.10?

 

Week	Demand	0.1
1	980
2	825
3	760
4	650
5

 Note: Calculation along with the formula is required for each period's forecast. Students who give answers without calculation will be given low marks/no marks.

 

 

Ans

 

Formula

Ft= Ft-1 + a (At-1 – Ft-1)

 

Ft = Forecast value for the coming time period

F t−1 = Forecast value in 1 past time period

At−1 = Actual occurrence in the 1 past time period

α = Alpha smoothing constant

 

 

Week	Demand	0.1	Calculations
1	980	980	=980+.10(0) = 980
2	825	980	=980+.10(980-980) =980+.10 (0) =980
3	760	964.50	=980+.10(825-980) =980+.10(-155) =980-15.5 =964.50
4	650	944.05	=964.50+.10 (760-964.50) =964.50 +.10 (-204.5) =964.50 – 20.45 =944.05
5		914.645	= 944.05+.10(650-944.05) =944.05 +.10(-294.05) =944.05 – 29.405 =914.645